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Condominium Market

How to Read Rising Inventory of Recently Built Homes in Five Central Wards and Tower-Condominium Price Revisions

Mansion Research says that existing-condominium transactions in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined year on year for a sixth consecutive month. Inventory growth among recently built condominiums is especially pronounced in five central wards, while this site's tower-condominium listing data shows many reductions in both sale and rental listings. Owners and prospective buyers should recognize that the materials do not isolate tower-condominium inventory trends, and should reassess whether rent can cover ownership costs and how liquid a future sale may be.

Topic & Methodology

This original article investigates a newsworthy topic using the issuer's materials and our data. The materials used are listed under “Sources and passages reviewed.”

AI drafted this article from the source announcement and this site's data. Citations and figures were checked, with a separate AI call used for cross-checking. Verifiable facts are presented separately from conditional analysis, but these checks do not guarantee accuracy. This is neither a guarantee of future prices or returns nor a recommendation to buy or sell.

What the Source Confirms

Mansion Research Reports Fewer Transactions and Uneven Inventory Growth

Citing a monthly report by the Real Estate Information Network for East Japan, Mansion Research says that existing-condominium transactions in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined year on year for a sixth consecutive month. It also notes that transactions registered with REINS do not cover every existing condominium actually traded in the metropolitan area. The company further says that inventory growth among recently built condominiums has become especially pronounced in five central wards. [1][2][3]

What the Source Confirms

Tower-Condominium Sale and Rental Listing Data

According to this site's aggregation, 3,136 homes were listed for sale, with a median price of JPY 7.849 million per tsubo. [4]

Another 2,745 homes were listed for rent, with a median rent of JPY 20,063 per tsubo per month. Price revisions comprised 356 reductions and 4 increases among sale listings, and 229 reductions and 8 increases among rental listings. [5][6]

Conditional Analysis

Conditions Under Which Weaker Investment and Resale Demand Could Affect Liquidity

Mansion Research notes that the five central wards contain many expensive condominiums and tower condominiums that attract strong interest from affluent domestic and overseas buyers and investors. Under the interpretation presented in the materials, if investment and resale demand that previously supported the market declines, a gap between past price levels and owner-occupier purchasing power could surface as rising inventory. [7][8]

This site's aggregation shows that 356 sale-listing reductions greatly exceeded 4 increases, while 229 rental-listing reductions exceeded 8 increases. This appears consistent with an adjustment in asking prices, but a listing reduction is a change in the asking price; it does not establish either a decline in transaction prices or lower net sale proceeds. [6]

Conditional Analysis

Conditions for Separating Rent, Ownership Costs, and Resale Value

Under this site's investment-index assumptions, the monthly figure starts with rent adjusted for the assumed occupancy rate and deducts estimated management fees, repair reserve contributions, loan repayments, property taxes, and property-management fees. Consequently, even when the median rent of JPY 20,063 per tsubo per month is known, the monthly net amount can vary with the purchase price, borrowing terms, repair reserve contributions, and other factors. [9][5]

Even at the same rent level, the calculation does not reflect interior condition, views, management quality, repair plans, or other factors that cannot be read from listings. Rent alone therefore cannot determine whether a property is advantageous; the individual management plan and equipment-renewal information should also be checked. [10]

Limitations & Points to Verify

Limits Created by Different Aggregations and Unverified Information

Because transaction records are not comprehensive, fewer transactions do not establish that demand weakened uniformly across the entire Tokyo metropolitan area. The materials do not establish whether tower-condominium inventory specifically increased. [2]

LIFULL HOME'S announced that listing prices for existing condominiums in six central Tokyo wards had peaked and entered an adjustment phase. However, Mansion Research's five central wards and LIFULL HOME'S six central wards cover different areas, and these materials do not establish whether listing-price movements separately identify tower-condominium transactions or rents. [11][3]

This site's sale and rental listing data and LIFULL HOME'S listing prices differ in population and observation date, so they must not be used together to calculate a simple rate of appreciation, depreciation, or yield. Asking prices and transaction prices are distinct, as are revision counts and realized gains or losses; additional checks should cover marketing periods, transaction cases, and repair reserve plans. [12]

Sources and passages reviewed

Research and opinions belong to their respective publishers. Citations establish the basis of the analysis and do not guarantee future results.

  1. マンションリサーチ株式会社
    成約件数は前年同月比で6ヵ月連続の減少となっており

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-16 17:26 (Japan time)

  2. マンションリサーチ株式会社
    レインズに登録される成約情報は、首都圏で実際に取引された中古マンションのすべてを網羅しているわけではない

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-16 17:26 (Japan time)

  3. マンションリサーチ株式会社
    都心5区（千代田区、中央区、港区、渋谷区、新宿区）では築浅マンションの在庫増加が一段と顕著に

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-16 17:26 (Japan time)

  4. TOWERS.SELECT Aggregation
    東京23区のタワーマンションのデータ：売出中の住戸は3,136戸で、坪単価の中央値は784.9万円/坪（2026-10-16時点、標本3,136戸）。

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-16 17:26 (Japan time)

  5. TOWERS.SELECT Aggregation
    東京23区のタワーマンションのデータ：賃貸募集中の住戸は2,745戸で、坪賃料の中央値は20,063円/坪・月（2026-10-16時点、標本2,745戸）。

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-16 17:26 (Japan time)

  6. TOWERS.SELECT Aggregation
    東京23区のタワーマンションのデータ：2026-10-10から2026-10-16までに確認した価格改定は、売買で値下げ356戸・値上げ4戸、賃貸で値下げ229戸・値上げ8戸。

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-16 17:26 (Japan time)

  7. マンションリサーチ株式会社
    都心5区には国内外の富裕層や投資家から高い関心を集める高額マンションやタワーマンションが数多く存在し

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-16 17:26 (Japan time)

  8. マンションリサーチ株式会社
    これまで市場を支えていた投資・転売需要が減少すると

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-16 17:26 (Japan time)

  9. Assumptions Behind TOWERS.SELECT's Investment Metrics
    想定の稼働率を反映した賃料から、管理費・修繕積立金・ローン返済・固定資産税等の概算・管理委託費を引いた月額。

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-16 17:26 (Japan time)

  10. Assumptions Behind TOWERS.SELECT's Investment Metrics
    室内の状態、眺望、管理の状況、修繕の計画など、掲載から読み取れない条件は反映していない。

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-16 17:26 (Japan time)

  11. 株式会社LIFULL
    東京都心6区の中古マンション掲載価格はピークアウトし、調整局面に突入

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-16 17:26 (Japan time)

  12. 株式会社LIFULL
    掲載賃料/価格は「募集賃料・売出価格」

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-16 17:26 (Japan time)