Main menu
日本語 English
Log InJA

high-rise condominium

Reading the Price-Adjustment Phase in Central Tokyo's Existing Condominium Market Alongside Tower Listing Indicators

A release by Mansion Research pointed to signs of price adjustment among existing for-sale condominiums in central Tokyo, including lower prices on newly registered listings and longer marketing periods. We compare it with our tower-condominium sale and rental listing data while considering resale prices, rent, and ownership costs separately.

Topic & Methodology

This original article investigates a newsworthy topic using the issuer's materials and our data. The materials used are listed under “Sources and passages reviewed.”

AI drafted this article from the source announcement and this site's data. Citations and figures were checked, with a separate AI call used for cross-checking. Verifiable facts are presented separately from conditional analysis, but these checks do not guarantee accuracy. This is neither a guarantee of future prices or returns nor a recommendation to buy or sell.

What the Source Confirms

Signs of adjustment in the existing condominium market

Mansion Research's study covers existing for-sale condominiums in Tokyo's three central wards and aggregates data from January 2024 through September 2026. [1][2]

The release says per-tsubo prices on newly registered listings began trending downward around the second half of 2025, while transaction prices per tsubo have edged down since early 2026. Marketing periods and discount rates began trending upward around mid-2024 and were described as extremely high in the latest month, September 2026. [3][4][5]

What the Source Confirms

Tower-condominium sale and rental listing data

Our figures show 2,700 units listed for sale in Tokyo's 23 wards, with a median asking price of ¥2.351 million/m² as of 2026-10-02, based on a sample of 2,700 units. [6][7]

There were 1,899 units listed for rent, with a median asking rent of ¥6,000/m² as of 2026-10-02, based on a sample of 1,899 units. Price revisions observed from 2026-09-26 through 2026-10-02 comprised 328 reductions and 3 increases for sale listings, and 151 reductions and 7 increases for rental listings. [8][9]

What the Source Confirms

Existing tower-condominium market activity

Mercury's August 2026 results reported 1,134 units in circulation in Tokyo's 23 wards, with an average price of ¥192.96 million for 70 m². The population consisted of existing condominiums at least 20 stories tall and no more than 20 years old at the time they entered circulation. [10][11][12]

Conditional Analysis

Price revisions and differences in the study populations

Mansion Research's release suggests that sellers may be beginning to lower asking prices gradually in response to the market. Our short-term count of 328 reductions and 3 increases concerns a snapshot of tower-condominium listings; it cannot be treated as a transaction-price decline rate for central Tokyo's entire existing condominium market. [13][9][6]

Mercury covers existing condominiums that were no more than 20 years old and at least 20 stories tall when circulated, whereas Mansion Research covers existing for-sale condominiums in Tokyo's three central wards. Any comparison must keep these differences in population and timing distinct. [12][1]

Conditional Analysis

Reading rent separately from ownership costs

Our data show 1,899 units listed for rent and a median asking rent of ¥6,000/m². This is a listing-side snapshot and does not directly indicate contracted rents or vacancy rates. Any investment-yield estimate must evaluate the monthly amount remaining after subtracting management fees, repair reserve contributions, loan repayments, estimated property taxes and similar charges, and property-management fees from rent adjusted for assumed occupancy. [8][14]

Our investment metric also excludes units whose listings do not state management fees or repair reserve contributions instead of treating those costs as ¥0. Decisions should not rest on lower sale asking prices alone; the relationship between asking rent and ownership costs needs to be checked for each unit. [15]

Limitations & Points to Verify

Limits of the materials and points requiring further review

These materials do not establish tower-condominium transaction prices, discounts to final sale, vacancy rates, repair reserve contribution levels, loan interest rates, or tax effects. Mansion Research's indicators for the three central wards cover a different population from our listings and short-term revisions, so they do not support concluding that all tower-condominium prices are falling. [1]

Mansion Research notes that differences among individual properties could become more pronounced depending on location, age, grade, views, management condition, and similar factors. Asking prices, rents, management fees, and repair plans should therefore be checked by station and building, while keeping the different populations and study dates separate. [16]

Sources and passages reviewed

Research and opinions belong to their respective publishers. Citations establish the basis of the analysis and do not guarantee future results.

  1. マンションリサーチ株式会社
    分析対象：東京都都心3区所在の中古分譲マンション

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  2. マンションリサーチ株式会社
    対象期間：2024年1月から2026年9月まで

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  3. マンションリサーチ株式会社
    新規登録坪単価については2025年後半頃から減少傾向が見られます

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  4. マンションリサーチ株式会社
    成約坪単価についても、2026年初旬以降は微減傾向が確認されます

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  5. マンションリサーチ株式会社
    値引率、販売日数ともに2024年中盤頃から上昇傾向に入り、特に直近の2026年9月においては、いずれも非常に高い水準となっています。

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  6. TOWERS.SELECT Aggregation
    東京23区のタワーマンションのデータ

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  7. TOWERS.SELECT Aggregation
    東京23区のタワーマンションのデータ：売出中の住戸は2,700戸で、㎡単価の中央値は235.1万円/㎡（2026-10-02時点、標本2,700戸）。

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  8. TOWERS.SELECT Aggregation
    東京23区のタワーマンションのデータ：賃貸募集中の住戸は1,899戸で、㎡賃料の中央値は6,000円/㎡（2026-10-02時点、標本1,899戸）。

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  9. TOWERS.SELECT Aggregation
    東京23区のタワーマンションのデータ：2026-09-26から2026-10-02までに確認した価格改定は、売買で値下げ328戸・値上げ3戸、賃貸で値下げ151戸・値上げ7戸。

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  10. PR TIMES（企業の発表）
    2026年8月に中古流通した東京23区と大阪市の行政区別データです。

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  11. PR TIMES（企業の発表）
    東京23区では1,134戸が流通し、70㎡あたりの平均価格は1億9,296万円でした。

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  12. PR TIMES（企業の発表）
    流通時点における築年数が20年以内で20階建て以上の中古マンションが対象

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  13. マンションリサーチ株式会社
    徐々に売出価格を引き下げ始めている可能性

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  14. Assumptions Behind TOWERS.SELECT's Investment Metrics
    想定の稼働率を反映した賃料から、管理費・修繕積立金・ローン返済・固定資産税等の概算・管理委託費を引いた月額。

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  15. Assumptions Behind TOWERS.SELECT's Investment Metrics
    管理費や修繕積立金が掲載に書かれていない住戸は、0円として計算せず、対象から外している。

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)

  16. マンションリサーチ株式会社
    個別物件ごとの価格差がより鮮明になる可能性

    Collected and aggregated:2026-10-02 18:50 (Japan time)